Nonlinear canonical correlation analysis
forecasts of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures
Aiming Wu and William W. Hsieh
data up to the end of
forecasts were made with the
nonlinear canonical correlation analysis model
approach. Ensemble-averaged forecasts for the SSTA in the Nino3.4 region
at various lead times are shown in Fig.1, showing a decaying
El Nino warm episode in 2003, returning to near normal conditions by
the middle of 2003. The forecasted SSTA
fields over the tropical Pacific are shown in Fig.2.
Figure 1. The SST anomalies (SSTA) (in degree Celsius) in the Nino3.4
area (170W-120W,5S-5N) predicted by the ensemble-averaged nonlinear
model at 3, 6, 9 and 12 months of lead time (circles), with
observations denoted by the solid line. Tick marks along the abscissa
indicate the January of the given years.
(The postscript file of Fig.1 is also available).
Figure 2. SSTA (in degrees Celsius) predicted by the ensemble-averaged
nonlinear model at 3, 6, 9 and 12 months of lead time, corresponding to
the four consecutive seasons starting with
MJJ (May, 2003- July, 2003).
The zero contour is shown as a white curve.
(The postscript file of Fig.2 is also available).
Back to [UBC Climate Prediction Group Home