Nonlinear canonical correlation analysis forecasts of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures

Aiming Wu and William W. Hsieh

Using sea level pressure and sea surface temperature data up to the end of August, 2008, forecasts were made with the nonlinear canonical correlation analysis model approach. Ensemble-averaged forecasts for the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the Nino3.4 region at various lead times are shown in Fig.1, and the forecasted SSTA fields over the tropical Pacific are displayed in Fig.2, showing for this coming winter, warm waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific, but near normal conditions in the central equatorial Pacific, hence not sufficient for an El Niño.

Figure 1. The SSTA (in degree Celsius) in the Nino3.4 area (170ºW-120ºW, 5ºS-5ºN) predicted by the ensemble-averaged nonlinear model at 3, 6, 9 and 12 months of lead time (circles), with observations denoted by the solid line. Tick marks along the abscissa indicate the January of the given years. (The postscript file of Fig.1 is also available).

Figure 2. SSTA (in degrees Celsius) predicted by the ensemble-averaged nonlinear model at 3, 6, 9 and 12 months of lead time, corresponding to the four consecutive seasons starting with OND (October-December, 2008). The zero contour is shown as a thick black curve. (The postscript file of Fig.2 is also available).

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