Neural-dynamical hybrid coupled model forecasts of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures

Youmin Tang and William Hsieh

The forecast model is the neural-dynamical hybrid coupled model with the assimilation of the NCEP sea level height anomaly data (Tang and Hsieh, 2002). Fig 1 shows our latest forecasts (initialized using data till the end of November, 2002), indicating that that the El Nino warming will grow in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean until the spring of 2003, decaying from spring to fall, and returning to near normal conditions by next winter.

Fig.1 Predicted SSTA of the tropical Pacific. Contour interval is 0.25 degree Celsius, with positive anomalies indicated by solid contours, negative anomalies by dashed contours, and zero by thick contours. Positive anomalies above 1 degree are shaded in red, and negative anomalies below -1 degree are in green. The zero contour is in purple.


  • Tang, Y. and W. W. Hsieh, 2002: ENSO simulation and prediction in a hybrid coupled model with data assimilation. J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan (in press). (preprint in PDF or postscript)

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